I Can't Argue with That

A few weeks ago the Silicon Alley Insider predicted that the implosion in the subprime market would drastically cut online ad spending by mortgage purveyors, thus hurting the earnings of the online media folk. I don't agree.

Now it seems that, on the one hand, they think I might be right, but, on the other hand, they think I might be wrong. Personally, I'd like to see some actual analysis here: is there a correlation between an industry's product becoming less attractive and the ad spending by that industry? Well, obviously. The real question: is that correlation positive or negative?

I'm guessing negative. When it's harder to attract customers to a profitable product, you spend more on marketing, not less. There has to be some data on this. Anyone, anyone...?