AdAge has a roundup of what various marketing professionals think will happen to advertising spend in 2008. Of the ten people they quote, only one is a relatively impartial observer: TNS' Jon Swallen. What does he say?
"The lesson to be learned from the past few recessions is that it obviously impacts different categories differently. Automotive ... is already pretty grim, and budgets have already been pruned across the board. Retail is traditionally the most economically sensitive category when you have a downturn in GDP. We're already seeing a flattening in spending by department stores, restaurants and a host of categories related to housing (including hardware, home furnishing and appliances). ... What's kind of interesting is that financial services -- which is sort of in the center of the storm -- has actually been quite robust. In the short term, at least, these guys are battling for a share of a shrinking pie."The last two sentences sound familiar.
But I have to admit that I'm surprised by his take on automotive advertising. His opinion does not seem supported by the data. I tend to side with the--admittedly impartial--CMO of Harley, who says "Our belief is that spending through a market downturn creates competitive advantage for the market upturn."